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Mathematical modelling of Echinococcus multilocularis abundance in foxes in Zurich, Switzerland

机译:瑞士苏黎世狐狸中多球棘球oc菌丰度的数学模型

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摘要

Background In Europe, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is the main definitive host of Echinococcus multilocularis, the aetiological agent of a severe disease in humans called alveolar echinococcosis. The distribution of this zoonotic parasite among the fox population is remarkably aggregated with few heavily infected animals harbouring much of the parasite burdens and being responsible for most of the environmental parasitic egg contamination. Important research questions explored were: (i) spatial differences in parasite infection pressure related to the level of urbanization; (ii) temporal differences in parasite infection pressure in relation to time of the year; (iii) is herd immunity or an age-dependent infection pressure responsible for the observed parasite abundance; (iv) assuming E. multilocularis infection is a clumped process, how many parasites results from a regular infection insult.\udMethods By developing and comparing different transmission models we characterised the spatio-temporal variation of the infection pressure, in terms of numbers of parasites that foxes acquired after exposure per unit time, in foxes in Zurich (Switzerland). These included the variations in infection pressure with age of fox and season and the possible regulating effect of herd immunity on parasite abundance.\udResults The model fitting best to the observed data supported the existence of spatial and seasonal differences in infection pressure and the absence of parasite-induced host immunity. The periodic infection pressure had different amplitudes across urbanization zones with higher peaks during autumn and winter. In addition, the model indicated the existence of variations in infection pressure among age groups in foxes from the periurban zone.\udConclusions These heterogeneities in infection exposure have strong implications for the implementation of targeted control interventions to lower the intensity of environmental contamination with parasite eggs and, ultimately, the infection risk to humans.
机译:背景技术在欧洲,赤狐(Vulpes vulpes)是Echinococcus multilocularis的主要定型宿主,Echinococcus multilocularis是一种严重的人类肺泡棘球菌病的病原体。这种人畜共患性寄生虫在狐狸种群中的分布非常明显,很少有重度感染的动物携带大量的寄生虫负担,并造成大多数环境寄生虫卵污染。探索的重要研究问题是:(i)与城市化水平有关的寄生虫感染压力的空间差异; (ii)与一年中的时间相关的寄生虫感染压力的时间差异; (iii)是导致观察到的寄生虫丰度的畜群免疫力或取决于年龄的感染压力; (iv)假设多发性大肠杆菌感染是一个聚集过程,定期感染会导致多少寄生虫。\ ud方法通过开发和比较不同的传播模型,我们根据寄生虫的数量表征了感染压力的时空变化。在瑞士苏黎世的狐狸每单位时间接触后所获得的狐狸。这些结果包括狐狸的年龄和季节随感染压力的变化以及牛群免疫力对寄生虫丰度的可能调节作用。\ ud结果最适合观察数据的模型支持感染压力存在空间和季节差异以及不存在感染压力。寄生虫诱导的宿主免疫。整个城市化地区的周期性感染压力具有不同的幅度,秋季和冬季的峰值较高。此外,该模型还表明了城郊狐狸不同年龄段的感染压力之间存在差异。\ ud结论感染暴露的这些异质性对实施有针对性的控制干预措施以降低寄生虫卵对环境的污染强度具有重要意义。最终导致人类感染。

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